Peak coal may happen as soon as 2025

comments from our community

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  Posted by poebenny Tue May 12, 2009 9:46pm PDT

  Are you kidding us? Coal and oil are the two sources of energy that we do have in abundance. So-called Alternative energy solutions should be second only to coal and oil. Drill in the United States now and afterwards invest in alternative soluutions!http://businessceo.ning.com/

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  Posted by Scott B Mon Sep 7, 2009 7:29pm PDT

  I think the question isn't "abundance" when it comes to peak oil and peak coal. It's how easy is it to find, get to and extract. We've experienced peak oil. Even though only 1/12 of the reserves have been tapped, what's remaining of the large known untapped reserves (with the exception of ANWR) is daunting to get to. You're talking billion dollar platforms, expensive equipment, labor, logistics, etc. In most cases, economic viability of these new deep sea finds is at $70, 80 ... $150 per barrel. So, if you "drill baby drill" without alternatives, you essentially lock yourself into the price at which it is economically viable to get at these reserves, because as much as people want to "drill baby drill", oil services companies won't drill if it is not economically viable for them to do so (as we speak, Halliburton has cut production recently in the US by 50%, because gas prices are too cheap), otherwise they'll lose their shirts. The gov't couldn't afford to subsidize drilling, just so "it happens", just like Venezula shouldn’t and can't (and they are currently paying the price of that policy – plus that’s just plain socialism / communism, which we know doesn’t work). The question is, "do you find it acceptable to pay $7, 8, 9 or $10.00 / gallon in five to ten years?”, because if you lock yourself into oil without other viable options, that's what it will come to. And, as we have seen, policies such as this are political death. And the other problem is refineries. The ROI is negative to build a refinery at current gasoline prices. At this point, natural gas is the best option, with biofuels and other alternatives being next. It's primarily the best option, because it is easy to get to, transmission and distribution networks (unlike gasoline that has to be trucked for distribution) are in place and it’s a one step process; natural gas does not need to be refined. In terms of peak coal, nuclear is a great option, until you go to build a plant in someone else's backyard, and then everyone says "hell no". Thus, that is not "really" an option, however there are small self contained nuclear power plants, which produce clean energy at $0.10 where there is no threat of a meltdown. I hope those really take off. But the problem with those (which actually increases that $0.10 / kWhr cost), is that they need to be guarded constantly to avoid someone taking the material and doing bad things with it. I have done a lot of research in this and my father actually works in the industry, and was for several years a strategic planner for one of the largest oil companies in the world. He’ll tell you that we need to drill ANWR, but that drill baby drill approach without alternatives ensures a stagnant economy, inflation and humungous trade deficits for the US and other countries dependent upon oil. Alternatives like nuclear, coal, natural gas, biofuels, wind, solar, etc, not only ensure our national security and determination, but also keep all of that money here. We can eliminate trade deficits and become a producing country again instead of a consuming one. And if we keep that money here, it’s more money in our pockets and more money to pay for all of the entitlements that we can’t bear to be without. The numbers are staggering (and will be staggering if we continue down the destructive path of oil / gas), but I won’t get into that here.

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